Could Stannis Gain Anything by Going Over to Aerys Instead of Robert?

In the convoluted world of Game of Thrones, allegiances and loyalties are often as complex as the calculation of who to align with for the best outcomes. If Stannis Baratheon, with his gruff and unyielding demeanor, had flipped his allegiance from Robert Baratheon to Aerys Targaryen, would he have truly benefited? This question delves into the strategic and political ramifications of such a shift.

Imagining Stannis Switching Sides

Assuming Aerys the Second did not burn Stannis alive upon discovering his existence, and the Targaryens emerged victorious, Stannis could have found himself in a much different position compared to his current one. Initially, Stannis would have been elevated to the title of Lord of Storm's End, a notable improvement from his then-position. Even if he could manage to woo Lady Selyse into conceiving a healthy heir, Aerys might have seen him as a suitable match for Daenerys.

Furthermore, if Rhaegar had survived and Aerys had met his end during the war, Stannis might have even been named to Rhaegar's small council, a rare opportunity for him. However, it is difficult to fathom Stannis making such a move, considering his deep-seated resentment towards Robert, and even Robert's friendship with Ned Stark.

Stannis's Potential Gains in the Immediate Term

Theoretically, in the short term, Stannis might have managed to convince Aerys of his sincerity and gain some tangible benefits. Aerys, notorious for his paranoia and propensity to paranoia, might believe that Stannis genuinely wishes to defect to his side. This could lead to Aerys naming Stannis as Lord of Storm's End and offering him rewards, or even deferring to him without immediately destroying him.

However, the stability of this arrangement would be tenuous. Aerys's mental instability was exacerbated by his delusions of grandeur and his conviction in the need to eliminate anyone who might pose a threat to his throne. This would mean that any victories or strategic advantages Robert managed to secure would likely be seen through a lens of betrayal, leading Aerys to suspect Stannis's loyalty.

The Long-Term Outlook: Aerys's Paranoia and Stannis's Fate

Given the nature of Aerys's paranoia, it is highly likely that any breach in loyalty would be met with swift and lethal consequences. Stannis's allegiance, even if genuinely shifting, would likely be pounced upon as evidence of double-dealing. Aerys, plagued by an endless cycle of distrust and fear, would dissect every move of both Robert and Stannis, interpreting setbacks as proof of Stannis's hand in the decline of his forces.

In essence, Stannis switching sides to Aerys would be a calculated risk fraught with peril. There is no clear indication that Aerys would provide any meaningful advantages. Storm's End, liberated from siege, might have been a benefit, but given the sheer number of forces at play, it seems extraneous, as the Tyrells would likely find alternative assignments to occupy themselves.

Stannis's primary loyalty, even if initially strained, lay with Robert. While aligning with Aerys might have offered short-term gains, the deeply rooted nature of Aerys's paranoia and the high stakes of political intrigue would ultimately prove that any move to Aerys would be a fatal blunder.