Will Gary Johnson Get Disaffected Republicans' Attention in a Trump vs. Clinton Election?

In a close presidential race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is expected to gain some consideration from disaffected Republicans. While the Democratic nominee is a stark contrast to Trump, many Republicans have found themselves disillusioned with both candidates, leading to speculation about their voting behavior.

The Impact of Donald Trump's Nomination

Many Republicans who consider themselves part of the 'neverHillary' faction are currently leaning towards supporting an independent candidate. However, given the strong support for Trump and Clinton, it is expected that most disaffected Republicans will abstain from voting, particularly in the presidential race. Some may even consider the Libertarian ticket, which challenges traditional Republican views on various issues.

Johnson, who is already polling at around 11%, is projected to gain further traction should Trump be successful in securing the Republican nomination. With a strong showing, it's possible that his support could reach up to 20%.

The CurrentPolitical Landscape and the Downward Spiral of Trump's Campaign

While the Donald Trump campaign has seen some success, this was recently illustrated by his crushing loss in the Wisconsin primary, a victory he predicted in a recent statement. The Republican rules committee is likely to adjust the delegates' system if no candidate secures the required 1,237 delegates. However, it is unlikely that Trump will reach this threshold on the first round.

Given the potential for changes to the party rules and the poor performance in key primaries, there is a growing likelihood that the Republican party may come up with alternative delegate rules to prevent Trump from securing an uncontested nomination. This could significantly affect the race, especially if other Republican candidates make a more concerted effort to capture the delegates.

Libertarian Views and Republican Discontent

The Libertarian Party's platform includes several key tenets that may resonate with disaffected Republicans, such as less military spending, legalization of drugs, and support for marriage equality. However, these core beliefs are often viewed with skepticism by traditional Republicans, even those who disagree with Trump's policies.

Considering the current political landscape, it is more likely that many disaffected Republicans will skip voting altogether, rather than casting a protest vote for Johnson. They might instead focus on local elections or choose to vote for their preferred members of Congress or the Senate.

While Gary Johnson's campaign may attract some Republican voters who are disillusioned with the two-party system, the overall impact on the presidential race remains uncertain. Johnson's performance will likely depend on the ability of himself and his running mate, William Weld, to rally support and convince more voters that they can realistically challenge Clinton and her running mate.

In conclusion, while Gary Johnson may receive some attention from disaffected Republicans, the majority of them may choose to abstain from voting, focusing instead on other aspects of the political process. The race for the White House will continue to be shaped by these complex dynamics, with each candidate and party vying for their respective alliances and supporters.