Will Dominic Thiem Become World No. 1?

Dom Noddic Thiem, a former underdog player, has steadily climbed the ranks to become one of the top tennis players in the world. However, his path to becoming the World No. 1—formerly an almost achievable goal—now seems fraught with challenges. Despite his recent success, including the US Open championship, his injury woes and struggle to maintain consistency remain significant obstacles.

Breakdown of His Current Situation

Thiem's journey has been marked by both triumph and tribulation. He demonstrated exceptional form on both hard courts and clay, winning the US Open and competing closely with Rafael Nadal on clay. His performance in 5-setters and against top-ranked players has been nothing short of impressive. Yet, a series of injuries and the need to play a safe game have significantly affected his performance and confidence.

The key to his rise to the top has been his versatility and sustained performance on both surfaces. However, his current issues with injury have thrown a wrench in his plans.

Chances of Reaching World No. 1

Current Projection: Thiem has won the US Open and faces a daunting challenge in the way of Rafa Nadal to win the French Open. Here's a detailed look at his projected trajectory:

US Open (2020): Thiem won, securing 2000 points. This substantially boosts his standing in the rankings. French Open: Thiem must defeat Nadal to secure the top spot. The odds are 50-50 given their history, with Nadal holding the upper hand on clay. Wimbledon: Thiem needs to perform well here to ensure his ranking does not fall too far behind. Brussels, Monte Carlo, Madrid, Rome: Thiem should aim to make it deep in these tournaments, at least reaching the semis to maintain his ranking and secure more points. American Hard Courts: He needs to perform strongly at Davis Cup, Toronto, Cincinnati, and US Open. Shanghai, Vienna, Paris Masters: Thiem should defend his titles in these tournaments to maximize his points. Nitto ATP Finals: Winning this event would be crucial to solidifying his position as World No. 1.

Impact of the New ATP Rank Rules

The ATP has introduced new rules due to the pandemic, which affect how rankings are calculated for the 2020 season. These rule changes have placed Thiem at an even higher disadvantage:

Rank Calculation: The best 18 tournaments over 22 months (March 2019 - December 2020) will count towards rankings. Points Distribution: It becomes even more challenging for players to climb the rankings, as they need to secure more points to surpass those in the higher rankings.

Thiem's current ranking is 9125 points, with Nadal at 9850 and Djokovic at 10860. Winning the French Open could add 800 points, while a victory in Paris Masters could add 910 points. Thiem needs to win titles and tournaments consistently to close the gap, which is currently 245 points.

Conclusion

Thiem has a difficult path ahead to become the World No. 1. He must consistently perform and win key tournaments, particularly the French Open and possibly Wimbledon, to overtake Nadal and Djokovic. The new ATP ranking rules make this more challenging, as he needs to earn more points to secure his position. While not impossible, it will require a near-perfect season and a significant amount of luck.

Despite the challenges, Thiem's potential and past success in key tournaments make him a strong contender. Fans of the game will be watching closely to see if he can achieve his goal.