Will Another Referendum Occur Before Brexit?
The question of another referendum before Brexit has often been a matter of debate. However, it is important to understand the historical context and the current political landscape.
Historical Context of Referendums and Brexit
Why wasn't there a referendum in 1994 when the EEC became the EU? The EEC became the European Union in 1994, and the UK joined without a referendum. The reasoning behind this was simple: the likelihood of the UK leaving at that time was minimal, so the official position of the EU was to facilitate the UK's entry without questioning the populace. Additionally, senior political figures who were part of the negotiation process, such as John Major, went on to have substantial roles within the EU after their UK political careers, reinforcing the idea that a referendum was not necessary.
The Current State of UK Politics
General Elections and Brexit Timing: The UK's next general election is scheduled for 4th July 2024. Brexit officially occurred on 31st January 2020, over four years prior to this election. Despite calls for a referendum, there has been no indication of a new one being planned or necessary.
It is important to note that referendums can occur, especially when public opinion and political circumstances dictate. However, the UK is no longer part of the EU, making it impossible for the UK to leave again. The two referendums that have taken place - in 1975 and 2016 - were clear in their outcomes, with the 2016 referendum resulting in a slim majority for leaving the EU.
Potential for Future Referendums
Politicians and Referendums: EU member countries may be hesitant to organize referendums that could remove them from the EU. The current generation of politicians stands to benefit financially and politically from staying within the EU, making the likelihood of a supportive referendum highly unlikely.
However, it is not impossible for there to be another referendum in the UK. The UK has a history of listening to the will of the people through referendums. Yet, any future referendum would likely not pertain to leaving the EU, as the UK is no longer a member of the EU.
The Impact of Previous Referendums
The 1975 and 2016 referendums clearly indicated that the UK wanted to be a part of the EU until 2016, and after that, to leave. The 2016 referendum was characterized by a narrow victory for 'Leave.' Subsequent general elections followed, and both times, the Conservative party won majorities, respecting the outcome of the referendum.
Conclusion: The idea of a third referendum is not without precedent but also requires a strong rationale. The UK has already made its voice heard three times, with clear and decisive results. Organizing another referendum on the same issue might be seen as unnecessarily repetitive and undermining the democratic process.