Why North Korea Might Not Be Announcing Kim Jong-un's Death
The disappearance of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has raised questions about his health and whether he is still alive. In situations where a leader's health or status is in question, it's common for countries to carefully manage the information leak. Here, we explore the reasons why North Korea might choose not to announce Kim Jong-un's death in a timely fashion.
Succession and State Secrets
The health of the North Korean leader is a closely guarded state secret. This level of secrecy is not unusual for an authoritarian regime where succession planning is often complex and unpredictable. Historically, North Korea has waited long periods to announce the deaths of its leaders. For instance, they waited two days to announce the deaths of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. Even in the face of mounting evidence, such as papers found on Kim Jong Il's desk, they ensured the official announcement was made only after careful deliberation.
Safeguarding National Security
Any internal instability arising from a leader's death can be exploited by external parties. Therefore, North Korea will likely delay the announcement until they have managed any underlying chaos stemming from political uncertainty. The succession process is a crucial phase where power dynamics shift, and controlling the narrative is essential.
Internal Struggles and Leadership Contests
Kim Jong-un has meticulously eliminated all potential alternatives to his rule, leaving North Korea in a state where there is no obvious successor. Given the chauvinistic nature of North Korean society, where Kim Yo-jong, the leader's sister, has been used in delicate situations, it’s likely there is a struggle for power between the army, secret police, the ruling party, and supporters of Kim Yo-jong. Therefore, any announcements will likely be delayed until the power struggle is resolved.
Official Reports and Evidence of Survival
North Korea's official reports are a crucial source of information. For example, on May 1st, Kim Jong-un was cited in an official report about International Labour Day. This indicates that he is alive and well. In the report, he emphasized the Grand Party's achievements in providing working conditions that are superior to those in other countries. These statements are indicative of a leader who is actively participating and ensuring the continuation of North Korea's ideology.
Conclusion
Based on the available evidence, Kim Jong-un is likely not dead. The delay in any announcement can be attributed to the need to manage internal stability and ensure a smooth transition of power. As long as no concrete evidence of his demise is presented, it is improbable that North Korea would issue an announcement anytime soon.
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