Why Do Some NBA Teams With Bad Records Get Higher Draft Picks Than Others?
The NBA draft lottery is a complex and intriguing aspect of the league, designed to ensure fairness while also encouraging competitive play. The mechanism of the lottery can sometimes lead to outcomes that may seem counterintuitive at first glance. Teams with bad records don't always end up with the top overall draft picks—sometimes, teams with slightly better records still secure valuable picks. This phenomenon is often tied to trades, the structure of the lottery, and the league's desire to maintain competitive balance.
The Lottery Structure
The NBA maintains a lottery system to determine the draft order among the 14 teams that don't make the playoffs each year. This system is designed to provide an incentive for teams to improve their record while ensuring that the worst teams still have a chance to win the top overall pick. Here's how the lottery works:
The three teams with the worst records have a 14% chance of getting the top overall pick. The 14th team, which has the second-worst record, has a 14% chance of winning the third overall pick. The remaining 12 teams have decreasing chances, from 6.25% for the 11th worst team to 6.77% for the 14th worst team.This weighted system was created to discourage teams from intentionally losing games to tank and ensure that the top picks remain the most valuable in the draft. In years past, before the current lottery system was implemented, teams would sometimes intentionally lose games to get the top pick, which would often result in a generational talent. However, with the current system, teams with slightly better records can still have a chance to secure a top pick.
Trades and Draft Picks
Frequently, the draft lottery also intersects with trades involving draft picks. Draft picks can be used as leverage in trading, providing teams with the opportunity to move up in the draft order or acquire valuable assets. For example, in the famous "Showtime" trade, the Los Angeles Lakers traded Vlade Divac for Kobe Bryant. Bryant was drafted out of high school, and in return, the Lakers received the Charlotte Hornets' upcoming draft pick. This added another dimension to the trade, as it provided the Lakers with an additional pick to enhance their roster.
The Brooklyn Nets once traded for the right to pick 29th in a lottery and then traded that pick up the board to 21st, acquiring a later pick and the Charlotte Hornets' draft pick. This illustrates how draft picks can be used as valuable bargaining chips in trade negotiations, which can have significant implications for the future of the team.
The Case of the San Antonio Spurs
An example of a team that won the lottery but had a slightly better record than expected is the San Antonio Spurs. In the 2021-2022 season, the Spurs finished with the third-worst record but won the lottery, with a 14% chance of securing the third overall pick. This outcome was unexpected, as they had a better record than some of the teams that didn't win the lottery. This scenario highlights the intricate nature of the lottery and the challenges it presents for teams trying to navigate the system.
Teams with a combined record of 20-62 were in contention for the top pick before the lottery. However, even the worst teams don't have a guarantee of securing the top pick. The Spurs' victory in the lottery demonstrates that the system can still produce surprising outcomes, even for teams with slightly better records.
The intricacies of the NBA draft lottery and the interplay between trades and team records are central to understanding how teams navigate the draft process. The system aims to balance competitive fairness with the incentives for teams to improve their records, while also ensuring that generational talents continue to be highly valued in the draft.