Why Did Coal Use Decline Faster under Trump Than Obama?
The often-cited perception that the decline in coal use occurred faster under former U.S. President Donald Trump than under his predecessor Barack Obama is a topic of considerable debate in environmental and energy policy discussions. This article explores the reasons behind this phenomenon and the role of various factors, including energy pricing and policy changes.
Price Competition: Natural Gas vs. Coal
A significant factor in the reduction of coal usage is the relative price of coal compared to natural gas. The dramatic drop in the price of natural gas, coupled with the planned premature retirement of old coal plants, has accelerated the shift from coal to natural gas. This shift is driven by the cost-competitive advantage of natural gas, which is sourced abundantly in the U.S. due to the shale gas revolution.
Energy Market Dynamics
The decline in coal consumption began well before either president took office. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that the decline started in 2007 during George W. Bush’s presidency. This was due to the significant drop in the cost of natural gas, which began around 2005. Utility-scale efficiency programs also played a crucial role, leading to a lack of growth in coal consumption even during economic recovery periods.
Impact of Renewable Energy Sources
The advent of renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar power, has further hindered coal’s market share. Since 2017, utility-scale wind and solar have become cheaper than natural gas. While the replacement of coal with natural gas is driven by economic factors, the rise of wind and solar has provided a stronger push toward cleaner energy. This is evident in the chart provided by the EIA, which shows the growing share of these renewable sources in the energy mix.
Environmental Regulations and Policies
While Republican rhetoric often implies that President Trump repealed numerous environmental regulations, the reality is more nuanced. The Obama administration's proposed Clean Power Plan aimed for a 32% reduction in U.S. electric sector carbon emissions by 2030, but it was never implemented. Despite this, the plan was largely complied with in 2019, nearly a decade ahead of schedule, due to the market's shift towards cleaner energy resources. This compliance is reflected in the EIA's charts, which show the decline in coal consumption.
Political Ideology and Reality
Republicans often cite protection of aging coal and nuclear plants as key policy goals, but this comes at the expense of the public and the economy. These subsidies raise rates for the public and degrade the U.S. economy. Many Republicans believe that Trump's presidency marked a period of environmental deregulation, but in reality, it had little to do with energy policies. The repeal of environmental rules did not significantly affect the energy sector.
Infrastructure and Policy Challenges
The reluctance of Republicans to listen to reason and consider information has serious implications for U.S. infrastructure and society. The Texas power failure during the winter storm in February 2021 and the compromise of internet controls for a natural gas power line are stark examples of how political inflexibility can lead to real-world consequences. While the infrastructure sector might benefit from addressing these issues, it remains a challenge to work with Republicans who prioritize ideology over practical solutions.
Conclusion
The decline in coal usage under both Obama and Trump is primarily driven by economic factors, such as the price of natural gas and the rise of renewables. While political rhetoric often highlights policy changes, the reality is that market forces have had a more significant impact. Addressing these energy challenges requires a pragmatic approach that balances economic and environmental considerations.