Should the Visegrad Group Leave the EU and Form a Free Association with CANZUK?
Recently, some have proposed that the Visegrad Group (V4) should leave the European Union (EU) to form a free association with CANZUK (Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom). This article explores the merits and challenges of such a move, comparing it to the V4's current position and the complexities involved in forming a new association.
The Current EU Status of the Visegrad Group
The Visegrad Group, comprising Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia, has enjoyed significant benefits from its membership in the EU, including free trade, free movement, and substantial investment. These benefits, however, raise questions about the potential advantages or disadvantages of leaving the EU for a free association with CANZUK.
Free Trade with Neighbors vs. CANZUK
One of the primary arguments against leaving the EU is the potential disruption to trade. The V4 countries benefit greatly from well-developed road and rail networks that currently facilitate trade with nearby European nations. Requiring goods to transit through ports like Gdansk and Gdynia would significantly slow down and increase the cost of trade. Furthermore, the economies of the V4 countries are deeply interconnected with their EU neighbors, making the likelihood of maintaining the same level of trade with a smaller and geographically distant group like CANZUK highly improbable.
Economic and Political Uncertainties
The idea of leaving the EU and forming a free association with CANZUK is complex and uncertain. Any such move would involve a lengthy and intricate process:
1. National Elections and Referendums: Each of the four Visegrad countries would need to hold national general elections resulting in new parliaments with a formal commitment to EU membership referendums. Subsequently, each country would need to hold these referendums, which could lead to diverse outcomes.
2. Article 50 Negotiations: Should any of the V4 countries vote to leave the EU, the Article 50 process would need to be initiated, which typically takes 3 years from referendum to legal exit. These negotiations would involve the EU and the potential new association partners (Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).
3. New Trade Agreements: The process of negotiating new trade agreements with the EU and CANZUK would be lengthy and complex, potentially taking several more years. By this timeline, new trade arrangements might not come into force until 2030 or even later.
Politically Unlikely
It is crucial to note that the current political landscape in the Visegrad countries does not support such a move. Most V4 governments have no policy for holding EU membership referendums. This absence of political will makes the scenario of leaving the EU and forming a free association with CANZUK highly unlikely.
Conclusion
While the concept of a free association with CANZUK sounds appealing to some, the reality is that it would be extremely challenging and uncertain. The V4 countries would face significant hurdles in terms of trade, political will, and economic integration. The current benefits of EU membership, including free trade and collective investment, make it highly improbable that the Visegrad countries would opt to leave the EU for a smaller and less strategically positioned association.