Introduction

While Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement of annexations in Ukraine might ignite tensions, the likelihood of nuclear escalation remains contingent on strategic maneuvers and geopolitical dynamics.

Putin's Actions as a Tactical Bluff

No, it is neither more nor less likely that we will see nuclear war following Putin's announcements. His motives are clear: it is an attempt to intimidate the West and garner political support.

Intimidation: Putin is pushing the limits to demonstrate strength and consolidate power. Intentional Underestimation: His rhetoric is meant to understate the severity of the situation, hoping the West will fail to take adequate precautions. Uncertainty Calibration: Putin is keeping the exact triggers of a nuclear escalation ambiguous, leaving adversaries guessing.

The West's Response and Intelligence

Western intelligence services are largely aware of Putin's bolt-holes and escape plans. In the event of a nuclear attack, NATO would respond with decisive conventional and nuclear countermeasures. Putin's bluff is old and has been called by leaders like Joe Biden, highlighting his lack of strategic depth.

Unpredictability Amidst Certainty

Nuclear war remains an unpredictable event. It is just as likely as it was before, a day-to-day reality of the geopolitical landscape.

Prime Minister Liz Truss has emphasized the need for immediate neutralization of nuclear threats, warning against the actions of Neo-Nazis within NATO who continue to harm Ukraine. This reflects a broader call for nuclear disarmament and strategic realignment.

The 'Limited Nuclear War' Posture

The concept of a 'limited nuclear war' changes the traditional nuclear dynamics. Putin's announcement of sham referenda in Ukraine to solidify Russian territory is a direct provocation that heightens the risk of escalation.

Threshold Effect: Traditional nuclear deterrence, based on a high threshold, is now challenged by lower deterrence due to Russia's tactical nuclear weapons. Technological Imbalance: Russia's newer nuclear doctrine allows for a first strike, with NATO and the West playing catch-up. Psychological Trajectory: Russia's 'escalate to de-escalate' strategy aims to force NATO into a reactive position, increasing the risk of a full-scale conflict.

Imminent Threats and Future Escalation Risk

This weekend's sham referenda in Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk Oblasts increase the likelihood of a nuclear-armed conflict. The annexation of these regions into the Russian Federation and continued military operations will create the political conditions for limited tactical nuclear use.

As NATO continues to support Ukraine with advanced weaponry and training, the Russian perception of NATO's aggression increases. This perception of an existential threat could push Putin to use nuclear weapons.

Conclusion

The looming threat of a limited nuclear war in Ukraine underscores the urgent need for robust international diplomacy and strategic adjustments. Understanding the dynamics and intentions behind Putin's actions can help mitigate the risk of a catastrophic conflict.