The What If Scenario: Margaery's Death and Sansa's Fate

Imagine a different path in the A Song of Ice and Fire world. What would happen if Margaery Tyrell died prematurely, before Joffrey could set aside Sansa Stark as his betrothed? This hypothetical scenario unfolds the complexities of political maneuvers and personal fates in King's Landing.

Challenges to Justifying Joffrey's Union

Without Margaery, the justification for Joffrey to set aside Sansa as "the Key to the North" becomes significantly more challenging. We know Sansa was widely recognized as the Key to the North following the rumored deaths of Bran and Rickon Stark.

The absence of Margaery would make it exceedingly difficult to pressure or persuade Joffrey to wipe out an important alliance. As A Song of Ice and Fire and the TV series A Game of Thrones demonstrate, unexpected deaths are common in Westeros, making the situation even more precarious.

Limited Alternatives for Joffrey

Mentions of potential alternatives, such as Arianne Martell, are already cut from the TV series, rendering her out. For Arianne, her father Mors Martell likely wouldn’t approve of a union with the Tarly family, as her betrothal to Trystane Martell is clearly more favorable for the situation at hand.

The same goes for Asha Greyjoy, also known as Yara, and Shireen Baratheon. Their respective fathers, Balon Greyjoy and Stannis Baratheon, would not agree to such marriages, viewing them as implicit legitimizations of Joffrey.

Forcing Sansa's Hand

With Margaery out of the picture, Joffrey would be left with little choice: Sansa Stark. If Sansa were betrothed to Joffrey, there would be no other viable candidates to tie the Lannisters and Tyrells closer together. The marriage between Joffrey and Sansa would effectively seal Syndra’s fate, both in the books and the TV series.

Political Shifts and Marriage Changes

Assuming the Tyrells still threw their support behind the Lannisters and won the Battle of Blackwater, a marriage between Joffrey and Sansa would proceed. However, this would still lead to complications, particularly in the storyline of Sansa Stark. Notably, Willas or Loras Tyrell would be betrothed to Cersei, with her initial objections being overruled.

For the sake of this exercise, let’s say this happened alongside the Purple Wedding, and the Red Wedding also occurred. Under these circumstances, Sansa would be considered the legitimate Lady of Winterfell, passed on to her first child if she were to have one with Joffrey.

Aftermath for Sansa

The Tyrells' reasons for supporting Littlefinger's plot to poison Joffrey would disappear now that Margaery is no longer in danger. Without Margaery, this alignment with Littlefinger becomes less productive, given there is no substantial gain for the Tyrells. Therefore, Sansa doesn’t have a viable escape in the form of a wedding as a bride, but rather as a queen.

Her life as Queen would mirror her life as Joffrey's betrothed. Joffrey's treatment of Sansa in the bedroom would be harsh and non-affectionate. The prospect of becoming a mother, symbol of hope, would eventually protect Sansa from his cruelty. However, this is unlikely, and Sansa would likely feel increasingly depressed by the realities of her situation.

Stannis Baratheon, who had hoped to save Sansa, would have even more reason to want Jon as a replacement or "Arya," none other than Jeyne Poole. Jeyne Poole, who took on a false identity, remains in play as a potential ally for Stannis.

Outcomes and Consequences

Provided Sansa gave birth to a male heir, Littlefinger might try to eliminate Joffrey with Sansa as his puppet queen and later her son. However, this is not guaranteed to succeed, and the Lannisters must be removed from the equation.

Should Joffrey survive and Aegon the Unbowed come to King's Landing, Sansa's fate is again uncertain. If Aegon wins, it opens up a path for survival; if he loses, her life would remain tragic, given Joffrey abuses her both physically and psychologically.

And if Daenerys Targaryen arrives in King's Landing, Sansa’s future looks bleaker still. As a wife to a usurper and mother to his children, the best-case scenario might be her being sent to the Silent Sisters, with her children ute. The worst-case scenario would involve her death alongside Joffrey and her children.

Ultimately, the hypothetical scenario of Margaery's untimely death highlights the intricate political and personal ramifications in the A Song of Ice and Fire world, shaping Sansa Stark’s future and her destiny as Queen of the Seven Kingdoms.