Why did Operation Unthinkable not happen?

Operation Unthinkable, a mere hypothetical plan that gained no traction, was a subject of British military planning in 1945. This plan involved provocative war scenarios against the Soviet Union (SU) following the defeat of Nazi Germany in Europe. The creation and contemplation of such an operation highlighted the dynamic and wary international relations of the post-World War II era.

The Background and Context

Just as world powers had finished one of the most catastrophic conflicts in human history, the newly signed peace treaties and declarations promised a new chapter in global politics. However, several complicating factors led to the shelving of Operation Unthinkable.

The Aftermath of World War II

Operation Unthinkable was initiated by British Prime Minister Winston Churchill in an effort to understand the potential military strategies against the SU in the event of a future conflict. This plan was conceptualized and developed by the British Armed Forces Joint Planning Staff in May 1945, shortly after the end of World War II in Europe. The context was a world still deeply scarred by recent events, with much of Europe in ruins and East-West relations distrustful and fragile.

Comparable to the Mongol Invasions

The devastation and atrocities of World War II left an indelible mark. The brutalities witnessed were comparable to those witnessed during the Mongol invasions, a stark reminder of the destructive potential of war. Post-war, much of the Western public opinion regarding the Soviets had shifted from perception to ally to rival, intensified by years of propaganda and the looming Cold War.

The Unfeasibility of Operation Unthinkable

Operation Unthinkable was more of a conceptual exercise than a practical plan. It suggested a surprise attack on Soviet forces stationed in Germany, an action that was deemed highly infeasible. The idea of initiating hostilities with the SU, who had just suffered significant losses, was not only unrealistic but also politically and militarily unsustainable.

Military and Political Constraints

Key factors contributing to the plan's impracticality included:

The Allied forces were still engaged in combating the Japanese in the Pacific Theater. A significant portion of the British Armed Forces were redeployed to the Pacific to support the war effort against Japan. The recently forged alliance with the SU for the mutual defeat of Japan had not yet broken down.

The Impact of the New Labour Government

With the change in governance from Winston Churchill to the Labour Party in 1945, Operation Unthinkable became a non-issue. The new government would have considered the plan intensely embarrassing, particularly given the concept's closely linked history with failed military actions like the bombing of Soviet oil centers during the Battle of Britain in 1940.

The Strategic Misunderstanding and Cold War Tensions

Churchill's initiation of Operation Unthinkable was rooted in his distrust of Stalin, a sentiment that was reciprocated by Stalin's own apprehensions. The plan was seen as a demonstration of British military resolve and a means to pressure Stalin to adhere to the post-war agreements regarding Eastern Europe.

The Legacy of Operation Unthinkable

Though Operation Unthinkable never materialized into a real military operation, its premise and implications have been a subject of extensive discussion and analysis among military historians, policymakers, and wargamers. The concept serves as a critical reminder of the complex geopolitical challenges faced by global powers during the Cold War era.

The Role of War Gaming

The legacy of Operation Unthinkable can be seen in modern military strategy training, where 'what-if' scenarios are employed to understand the potential outcomes of various strategic decisions. Understanding the contingencies and potential threats of geopolitical shifts is crucial for maintaining global peace and security.

Conclusion

Operation Unthinkable stands as a testament to the intricate and multifaceted nature of international relations during the post-World War II period. The unfulfilled doctrine serves as a valuable lesson, highlighting the importance of trust, negotiation, and understanding in the preservation of global peace.