The Uncertain Future of Cory Bernardi in Australian Politics

Politicians often face the challenging prospect of navigating the ever-evolving political landscape. For Cory Bernardi, a member of the Liberal Party, the upcoming 2022 election presents significant hurdles that could diminish his chances of re-election.

Predictive Trends in Australian Politics

The current government is likely to face a grave situation in the upcoming opinion polls, making it difficult to predict a revival of its fortunes. The political shifts are evident, with growing dissatisfaction and a clear signal from voters that change is needed. Such a scenario points towards a potential Labor Party victory in 2019. If that were to happen, it would dramatically alter the national debate, steering it back towards climate change, healthcare, social services, limited protectionism, and gay marriage.

The Collapse of Populist Movements

The American political experiment under Donald Trump has shown clear signs of failure, indicating that similar populist movements in Australia could suffer the same fate. Australian voters are showing a marked preference for less divisive and more pragmatic political figures. As a result, candidates like Pauline Hanson, known for her outspoken and polarizing views, may see their influence wane.

Bernardi's Position in the Political Spectrum

Bernardi is positioned in a highly competitive and polarized section of the Australian political landscape. His stance, particularly on issues like gay marriage, is seen as increasingly outdated. Furthermore, his party and ideological leanings are likely to resonate less with voters who are shifting towards more centrist or centre-left platforms. His only realistic pathway to re-election would be to significantly alter his political messaging or find a new party alliance that caters to the changing demographics and political ideologies.

Challenges for Bernardi's Re-election

Several factors work against Bernardi achieving re-election:

Short-Term Media Buzz: While Bernardi's recent move from the Liberal Party might draw some short-term attention, this buzz is unlikely to translate into long-lasting voter support. Limited Running Mate Options: Finding a running mate to carry the "heat" of Bernardi’s attention-grabbing ideas is challenging, as many voters are already tired of these messages. Popularity Issues: Bernardi is not a particularly popular figure among the electorate, and even those on the conservative end of the spectrum find it difficult to bring themselves to endorse him. Competition from Existing Alternatives: His new party would be running in a state (South Australia) that already has a solid alternative in the form of Nick Xenophon Team (NXT), labeled as 'One-Nation-like' due to its similarities with the existing One Nation party. The Trump Effect: In Australia, the electorate's affection for Trump has waned significantly, diminishing the potential appeal of any party heavily associating with his legacy. Independent Status: Bernardi's decision to leave the Liberal Party and remain an independent candidate could backfire, especially with a block-based voting system that relies heavily on party labels.

Conclusion and Possible Outcomes

In summary, Cory Bernardi appears to be facing a highly challenging re-election bid in 2022. His departure from the Liberal Party, while perhaps seen as a strategic move, does not guarantee success. It is more likely that he will focus on retirement or align with a new political coalition, such as the "New Conservatives" joining the One Nation party, to secure his political future.

The political landscape's ongoing evolution, combined with the electorate's changing preferences, makes it imperative for Bernardi to adapt his political stance if he wishes to remain a relevant voice in Australian politics. As of now, the odds are stacked against him, necessitating a significant and transformative shift in his approach to have any chance of re-election.