Will We See Gary Johnson, Hillary Clinton, and Donald Trump in a 3-Way Debate?
No, there will probably never be a debate that includes Gary Johnson or Jill Stein. The Duverger's Law and the two-party system of the United States make this highly unlikely.
The Duverger's Law and the Two-Party System
Duverger's Law neatly explains why the United States has a two-party system. This law states that plurality voting systems tend to be dominated by two major political parties. In the U.S., there are a total of single-member districts where the party with the most seats in the government gets to rule. This facilitates stability and simplifies decision-making processes, as witnessed in the parliamentary systems of Europe.
Further, political scientists have thoroughly studied this phenomenon, and Duverger's Law is practically the only theory in politics considered to consistently apply in the real world.
Historical Exceptions to the Two-Party System
Although Abraham Lincoln won the presidency as a member of the Republican party, back in 1860, the third party often played a significant role. This was possible because of the split within the Democratic Party, which nominated both a Northern and a Southern candidate.
However, in today's era of televised debates and widespread information, these kinds of splits are much less likely to occur. The political environment of the 19th century was vastly different from the 21st, and the complexity of the current media landscape makes it hard for third parties to gain a significant foothold.
Potential for Gary Johnson's Inclusion in Debates
As of now, Gary Johnson is polling at 13 percent, a significant rise from previous figures. If he reaches an average of 15 percent support nationally across multiple polls, he would earn a spot in the presidential debates.
At present, his average is around 12 percent. While there is a possibility he might surpass this threshold, given the unpredictable nature of the elections in 2016, it's more probable that this scenario won't materialize.
Impact of Recent Political Events
The chaotic nature of the current electoral process has certainly affected the race. Donald Trump continues to make racist statements, while Hillary Clinton has been caught breaking the law. Additionally, the interest in third-party candidates is at a peak, as evidenced by the surge in Google searches.
Current Polling Numbers and Future Prospects
Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green party candidate Jill Stein are not currently polling well enough to secure a spot in the major debates. To have a chance, they would need to improve their current standings drastically.
As of the latest data, Johnson and Stein are both below the 10 percent threshold. Hence, significant improvements would be necessary for them to consider any chance of debating in the main events.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while the unprecedented conditions of 2016 might offer some uncertainty, the Duverger's Law and the robust nature of the existing two-party system make it unlikely that Gary Johnson or Jill Stein will be included in the presidential debates. The political landscape in the United States continues to be dominated by the Democratic and Republican parties, with third parties playing minimal roles.