The Potential Impact of Rajinikanth Joining the BJP: A Speculative Analysis
Speculations about Rajinikanth joining the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have been swirling in the Tamil Nadu political arena. However, some experts argue that such a move would have minimal impact on the fortunes of the BJP in Tamil Nadu. This article explores the potential scenarios and their implications.
Current Political Landscape in Tamil Nadu
Rajinikanth, a legendary film star turned political commentator, has been active in Tamil Nadu's political discourse. The current political landscape in Tamil Nadu is complex, with several key parties vying for power: the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK), the Tamil Nadu Political Welfare Committee (PMK), and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMKD).
The BJP's Status Quo in Tamil Nadu
As it stands, the BJP does not hold significant sway in Tamil Nadu. The party has occasionally made tentative moves to enter the fray, such as Rajinikanth's participation in a recent Tughlaq meeting. However, recent revelations of past political scandals and controversial statements from some ADMK ministers suggest that the political climate is not favorable for a new entrant like the BJP.
Potential Events Post April 2020
The scenario is expected to change post-April 2020, with Rajinikanth emerging from what appears to be a period of hibernation. It is anticipated that he will launch a new political party, ostensibly to fight corruption. Meanwhile, multiple investigative bodies are expected to intensify their activities, uncovering more political scandals. This could potentially result in the dismissal of the existing government citing these scandals.
Another significant event is the defection of some ADMK ministers to Rajinikanth's new party. It is speculated that Rajinikanth will forgive and clean their records, making them acceptable to the new political landscape. Despite the BJP's intentions to ally with Rajinikanth, the reality may be different, as his focus remains on the newly formed party.
Political Parallels and Predictions
Shivaji Rao Gaekwad, the likely candidate for Rajinikanth's new party, is seen as a vastly different individual from Rajinikanth. Gaekwad is known for his reserved and humble demeanor, and he shows little inclination towards political activism. His preference for a director's role indicates a lack of desire to engage in political leadership, making him an unlikely candidate for a crowd-pulling orator.
Seeman, the current leader of the ADMK, is expected to intensify his attacks on the opposition, claiming that the EPS (Eamonn Fernando's faction of the ADMK) is the true Tamil voice and that the ADMK EPS is not a Dravidian party. His supporters are likely to be swayed by these statements. Meanwhile, Kamal, another prominent figure, is predicted to boycott the elections, as he has done before, citing allegations of money power.
The ragtag coalition led by Rajinikanth is anticipated to secure approximately 20-22% of the vote, effectively becoming the second front in Tamil Nadu's political landscape.
Expert Analysis
Several experts believe that Rajinikanth's political aspirations remain more about pushing his movies and leveraging his celebrity status rather than engaging in serious political leadership. It is noted that he often positions himself as a champion of social equality and justice, but his political comments are often short-lived and pragmatic, driven by business and marketing considerations.
Given Gaekwad's nature as a 'directors' man' who avoids taking independent initiatives, it is unlikely that he will emerge as a strong orator or political leader. This indicates that Rajinikanth's political journey may be more about creating a new space for his films and less about changing the political dynamics of Tamil Nadu.
On Quora, there is likely to be a significant backlash from some of Rajinikanth's ardent supporters who have been favorable to his administration. They will need to confront the reality that his political moves may not align with their expectations.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while Rajinikanth's potential entry into politics is an intriguing development, it is unlikely to transform the political landscape in Tamil Nadu significantly. The challenges faced by the BJP and the uncertain behavior of potential political allies suggest that Rajinikanth's foray into politics may be more about leveraging his fame than making a serious political impact.