The Impact of Taylor Swift's Endorsement on Kamala Harris's Voter Registration: A Closer Look

When Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris in the 2020 US presidential election, it wasn't just a mere political move—it sparked a significant surge in voter registrations. According to reports, over 300,000 people registered to vote. This raises two key questions: would these registrations show up in polls and surveys, and how would their participation change the election outcomes?

Appearances in Polls and Surveys

The only people who 'appear' in polls are those who are contacted by the researchers conducting the polls. The minimum requirement for appearing in a poll is to be a registered voter. Thus, it is feasible that these new registrants could be contacted by pollsters. However, it's important to note that pollsters typically do not have access to a comprehensive list of newly registered voters; they predominantly rely on existing voter databases.

Registered voters who haven't yet been contacted by the pollsters may go unregistered in the final results. Therefore, while it's possible for new registrants to appear in polls, it is speculative without additional data.

Impact of Participation in Elections

The second question centers around the impact of this increased voter registration on election outcomes. Participation in polls and surveys might offer some insights into voter sentiment, but it does not directly influence the election's actual results. What truly matters is the number of actual votes cast.

Several factors can affect the impact of these new registrations. Firstly, the reliability of turnout is crucial. Many people who register do not end up voting. Registrations alone, without corresponding turnout, do not significantly impact the election. This underscores the importance of active participation.

Secondly, the impact of these voters is not uniform across states. Typically, swing states, where the vote count is close, see a higher impact from new registrations. These voters are more likely to sway the outcome compared to those in safe districts. The impact of these additional 300,000 registrations could be transformative in a few swing states, potentially altering the election outcome.

Case Study: 2016 Presidential Election Swing States

For context, the 2016 presidential election saw only around 300,000 swing state voters tipping the balance in favor of Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. This small number of additional voters could lead to a change in the election's outcome. Considering the thousands of new registrations following Swift's endorsement, it is plausible that their involvement could have a similarly significant impact in the 2020 election.

Conclusion

While the initial surge in voter registrations following Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris is impressive, the true impact will be felt on election day. The key factor is the number of active and engaged voters who turn out to cast their ballots. Swing states, in particular, may see a significant shift due to the increased voter registration. As it stands, we'll have to wait until November 6 to know the full extent of this impact.

Therefore, while the 300,000 new registrations are a remarkable achievement, their impact on the election's outcome depends heavily on the level of voter turnout. It is speculative to assume that these new registrants will automatically translate into votes for Kamala Harris.