The Evolution of the Social Contract: Putin's Russia and the Broader Implications

Every nation is built on a social contract, a tacit agreement between the state and its citizens. The relationship between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian people is a classic example of a changing social contract. This essay explores how Putin has altered the terms of this agreement, from his early political promises to the current state, and the potential consequences of these changes.

The Early Social Contract

Prior to Putin's leadership, the social contract in Russia was somewhat unstable. It could be summarized as: you elect us; we serve you or rule you, taking a more authoritarian approach. Even in its early stages, Putin's governance aimed to appeal to the public's desire for stability. During this period, he promised to maintain economic benefits while allowing individuals freedom from direct political engagement.

However, this early social contract began to unravel with the annexation of Crimea in 2014. The economy entered a stagnation period, with businesses collapsing at an alarming rate. The ruble lost over a third of its value, leading to a severe economic crisis. This period marked the first break from the original social contract, as the upgraded benefits of economic freedom were no longer available to the majority of citizens.

The Post-Crimea Social Contract

Following the annexation, the social contract transformed further. Putin promised stable jobs and security to those who could afford to be part of his inner circle. In exchange, he expected unconditional loyalty and the love of the electorate. However, the aftermath of the annexation brought more negative consequences, including massive job losses and a deepening economic downturn.

The social contract of February 2022 is perhaps the most significant shift, breaking away from the promise of economic stability and prosperity. The loss of an estimated nine million jobs, largely due to western businesses leaving, and the broader economic impacts, have led to a new reality. The social contract now demands that citizens support Putin's war efforts and be prepared to make significant sacrifices. Failure to do so is considered a traitor.

The Impact on Russian Society

The evolution of the social contract under Putin has profound implications for Russian society. There is a growing divide between the elite and the broader population, with the wealthy expected to support Putin and bear the brunt of the economic and social costs.

Interestingly, there has been relatively little public protest against Putin's rule. This can be attributed to several factors. First, a large segment of the population values freedom as it is provided by the government. This sentiment is held in comparison to the pre-Putin era, when basic freedoms were even more limited. Second, the current social contract positions Putin as the protector of the nation, especially in times of conflict, which has deterred significant public opposition.

As the Russian people continue to rebuild their worldview on a war footing, the relevance of these evolving social contracts cannot be overstated. The current reality is not just a political or economic issue but a fundamental shift in the relationship between the state and its citizens. This transformation has far-reaching consequences, impacting everything from economic stability to social cohesion.

Conclusion

The social contract in Putin's Russia is in a state of flux, with each step leading to a more authoritarian and economically compromised system. While some argue that this is a temporary state, the evidence suggests that these changes are more permanent. For the Russian people, the task now is to navigate this new reality and determine how to cope with the evolving relationship with their state.