The Consequences of Trump’s Premature Death Before or After the Election
The 2020 election cycle remains one of the most contentious and unpredictable in recent American political history. If Donald Trump were to pass away in the days or weeks leading up to the election, the resultant chaos could have far-reaching consequences for the Republican party and the outcome of the November election. This article explores the potential scenarios and their implications.
Scenario 1: Prior to the Republican National Convention (July 18th)
Legal Safeguards and Section 3 of the 25th Amendment: Under these circumstances, the most likely scenario involves invoking Section 3 of the 25th Amendment. After a presidential term, this section authorizes the Vice President (if one is present) and a majority of the Cabinet to declare the President incapacitated. In this hypothetical scenario, Vice President Mike Pence would assume control until a general election could be held.
Composition of the Republican Race: If no Vice President is present, the Republican National Convention (RNC) would quickly transition into a new phase. This may lead to a scramble, with potential contenders vying for the party's nomination. South Carolina Senator Nikki Haley currently stands out as a strong contender but is not guaranteed. The party could theoretically nominate anyone, even a Democrat like Joe Biden, although this would be highly unlikely. Adding to the uncertainty is the Republican Party's internal strife, which makes selecting a nominee even more complex.
Scenario 2: After the Republican National Convention (July 18th)
Extraordinary Convention: If Trump were to pass away after the convention, the selection process would become more complicated. A special or extraordinary convention would be required to choose a new nominee. This process is legally stipulated in the party's bylaws, though the exact details would need to be deciphered. Given the current dysfunction within the Republican Party, it might even be challenging to produce a nominee at all. This could lead to a prolonged period of infighting, with the election date inching closer.
Partisan Infighting: The Republican internal dynamics could result in a prolonged inability to select a candidate. With the House of Representatives unable to function properly, the likelihood of inaction increases. This scenario presents a vivid image of a divided party, barely holding together, with no clear path forward.
Impact on the November Election
Presidential nominee uncertainty: If no candidate is selected by election day, the incumbent Biden would almost certainly win unopposed. Any third-party or independent candidate would struggle to mount a serious challenge, given the major party’s overwhelming resources and support.
Legitimacy Issues: The absence of a Republican nominee could lead to significant legitimacy concerns. The election might be perceived as less fair or legitimate, potentially affecting public trust and the overall democratic process.
Political Reactions: If Trump were to die after the convention, there would be immediate pandemonium. Supporters of the Republican Party would suddenly have a chance to secure the White House, leading to a surge of activity and mobilization. The Republican National Committee (RNC) would face significant pressure to produce a candidate quickly, while Trump’s supporters would swarm to rally around a new nominee.
Overall, the premature death of Donald Trump before or after the election would bring intense political turmoil. The Republican party would face significant challenges in selecting a nominee, while the November election outcome would hinge on these internal dynamics.