Does Russia Support Ukraine Joining NATO?

Russia has been actively opposing Ukraine's potential alliance with NATO. This opposition is rooted in a multifaceted geopolitical strategy rather than any straightforward support for Ukraine. The ongoing military conflict and the atrocities committed against innocent civilians have solidified Russia's stance against NATO membership.

Should Ukraine join NATO, Russia would be in a dire situation. The 33 NATO members, including Ukraine as the 33rd, could collectively impose significant military repercussions, effectively making it a war of choice. This stark reality is perhaps the strongest deterrent for Ukraine to even consider this path. As the saying goes, 'Goodbye to killer/warmonger Putin.' This sentiment reflects the widespread sentiment among Ukrainians who are weary of Putin's aggressive policies.

Ukraine's Economic and Security Interests

Ukraine's primary interest lies in its economic and security frameworks. Its desire to join the European Union (EU) aligns with its long-term vision for integration into European structures. Joining NATO is more symbolic and less practical for Ukraine's immediate needs.

Russia's stance on Ukraine's NATO membership is often interpreted through a security lens. Putin's rhetoric reflects a deep-seated distrust and a desire to protect Russia's influence in Eastern Europe. However, it's worth noting that Russia is less opposed to Ukraine joining the EU, which is a less confrontational path for both parties.

Russia's Prominent Role in NATO’s Military Affairs

Contrary to popular belief, Russia has not been entirely against NATO's expansion into Ukraine. In fact, Russia has recently been recognized for its strategic contributions to NATO, particularly in encouraging Finland and Sweden to join the alliance. This award serves as a reminder of Russia's ability to influence NATO's decision-making processes, even indirectly.

Ironically, Russia's military actions have only served to strengthen Ukraine's resolve to remain independent and less aligned with Russian interests. The invasion has led to increased Ukrainian-Russian antipathy, pushing Ukraine towards stronger ties with Western nations and organizations such as NATO and the EU.

Legal and Multilateral Perspectives

The Montevideo Convention outlines the qualifications for statehood, including the capacity to enter into relations with other states. According to this convention, each nation has the right to an independent foreign policy. Thus, Russia's role in Ukraine's decision to join NATO or any other alliance is legally irrelevant, a principle that supports Ukraine's decision to pursue its own foreign policy.

Ukraine's potential NATO membership raises concerns about the balance of power in Europe. Russia fears that closer ties with Ukraine would mean a direct military threat, given the proximity of NATO forces to Russia's borders. This strategic concern fuels Russia's opposition to Ukraine joining NATO, despite the conventional wisdom that Russia itself should not dictate Ukraine's foreign policy choices.

The myth of Russia's support for Ukraine joining NATO is largely debunked by the reality of its opposition driven by security and influence concerns. While the invasion has exacerbated tensions, it has also united Ukraine and pushed it closer to Western alliances. Russia's position remains a matter of national security, not an endorsement of Ukraine's NATO membership.