Introduction to Russia’s Dilemma with NATO Expansion

The decision by Finland and Sweden to join NATO is certainly a critical development for both regional and global politics. While most geopolitical

Understanding Russia’s Perspective

Russia views NATO’s expansion as a strategic threat, reflecting historical tensions and modern geopolitical concerns. Russia’s hesitation to directly react to these developments stems from a lack of actionable countermeasures given the current state of its military and economic resources.

Russia’s Expected Strategic Response

Russia’s Strategic Approach: Given the limited options for direct military action, Russia is likely to employ indirect or softer measures in response to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. These can include:

Exploiting existing tensions in weaker regions such as Moldova and Transnistria, where there are ongoing conflicts and tensions. Engaging in cyber attacks and economic warfare, with an energy war against the EU as a prominent strategy. Seeking support and manipulating external actors such as the MAGA faction in Congress and former President Trump, while also maintaining caution to avoid direct escalation that could have serious geopolitical repercussions.

Current Status of Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO Admission

The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO is moving forward despite initial opposition. Here’s an overview of the current status:

Accession Talks Conclusion: The accession talks were completed in June, marking a significant milestone. Meetings NATO Criteria: Finland and Sweden have fulfilled nearly all the requirements for membership, leaving only the ratification process to be completed. US Senate Ratification: The US Senate ratified Finland and Sweden’s accession in early August, a step signaling strong support for the expansion. Final Ratification: Other NATO members are expected to finalize their ratification process by the end of September, virtually guaranteeing the countries’ entry into the alliance. Turkey’s Shift: Initial opposition by Turkey to Sweden’s accession due to political reasons has subsided, and Turkey no longer opposes their integration into NATO.

Russia’s Reaction and Potential Actions

Russia’s Initial Reaction: When Finland and Sweden formally requested to join NATO, there was a mix of sabre-rattling and posturing, but little substantive action.

Cyber Attacks: When Finland formally requested to join NATO, they experienced a Denial of Service (DoS) attack on their Parliament, pointing to Russia’s attempt to disrupt the accession process. Economic Sanctions: Potential economic sanctions might be considered, but their effectiveness is questionable, as they may primarily impact the Swedish and Finnish economies without significantly harming Russia. Cyber Warfare: Russia is likely to intensify cyber attacks on Finland and Sweden as a form of pressure and disruption. Energy War with EU: Russia is exploring new energy sources and supply routes to mitigate the impact of the EU’s potential sanctions and reduced reliance on Russian gas. Stockpiling of Natural Gas: Russia is also stockpiling gas supplies for the winter months, preparing for potential economic reprisals by the EU. Electricity Exports to Finland: Russia has already stopped electricity exports to Finland, though the volume was relatively small (about 10% of total exports) and thus had a limited impact.

Conclusion: Long-term Implications

The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO will have significant long-term implications:

Cooling Relations: Russia’s actions and rhetoric may stoke tensions but are unlikely to achieve substantial strategic gains. Self-Preservation: Finland and Sweden’s active pursuit of NATO membership is driven by a desire for self-preservation, recognizing the potential threats posed by Russia’s aggressive behavior. Isolation and Reputational Damage: Russia will maintain its stance of isolation and reputation damage, impacting its global standing for a generation. Economic Sanctions: The consequences of sanctions will likely be felt soon, affecting the Russian economy in ways that could be detrimental to the country. Social Impact: The ultimate cost of Russia’s actions will fall on the Russian people, potentially leading to social and economic hardship that persists for years.

A map detailing all the regions and countries affected by Russia’s historical invasions can be found here.