Rick Perry's Endorsement of Newt Gingrich: A Strategic Move Amidst Political Chaos
The decision by Rick Perry to endorse Newt Gingrich during the 2012 U.S. presidential election was a strategic move, influenced by the political climate and the potential for a major scandal to emerge. While the exact inner workings of this endorsement remain unclear, the timing and purpose of the move seem to align with the broader political calculus at play.
The Timing and Purpose of the Endorsement
Rick Perry's endorsement of Newt Gingrich can be seen as a calculated move meant to consolidate conservative votes. The timing of the endorsement was forced by the context of the debate, where the strategic decision was whether to withdraw or stay and allow conservative voters to coalesce around two key candidates rather than three.
Had Perry withdrawn, it might have allowed conservative voters to consolidate their support behind either Romney or Gingrich, or potentially another candidate, rather than spreading their votes more thinly. However, if there had been no press interview with ABC, the endorsement might have been much less significant and perhaps not news at all.
The Context of Political Chaos
Breaking news often presents itself in a way that emphasizes new and unexpected information, even when the underlying facts are well-known to insiders. The personal scandals weighing on Newt Gingrich are such old news to political junkies that many ordinary Americans were still unaware of them all. This created a situation where ending support for Gingrich presented a smaller scandal compared to the potential for a major one to emerge on the same day.
Political Calculus and the Prospect of Endorsing Romney
While it might seem that Rick Perry's support for Newt Gingrich could strengthen the Republican nominee, especially if Gingrich is perceived as more acceptable to the party base, the underlying political calculus is more complex. Political consideration suggests that the only viable candidate to beat the incumbent Obama is Mitt Romney. If Perry chose to support Romney, it would align with this wider strategic view of the Republican party.
Considering Perry's stated goal of garnering the evangelical vote and the fiscal-conservative vote, neither of which are particularly thrilled with Romney, supporting Gingrich seemed like the better strategic choice. However, there's also a divide among evangelical voters, with many supporting Gingrich despite his more moderate stance on some issues, while others are in favor of Santorum, who won Iowa and New Hampshire.
The Risks and Long-term Consequences of Endorsing Gingrich
Supporting Gingrich also carries significant risks, as it isolates him from the eventual nominee and potentially weakens him. In his current state, Perry is isolated from the eventual Republican nominee, which effectively ends his own chances of securing the presidency in 2012. Additionally, by supporting a candidate who is 72 and may be seen as too old, Perry is investing in a long-term vision that may not materialize.
While some may argue that Perry is setting himself up for 2016 by aligning himself with voters who would be more likely to support Gingrich in the future, this analysis may be overly optimistic. The future is uncertain, and making such long-term plans can be risky in the ever-evolving political landscape.
Conclusion
Rick Perry's endorsement of Newt Gingrich was a complex decision influenced by both political timing and strategic calculus. While it presented a strategic opportunity to consolidate conservative votes, it also carried significant risks and long-term consequences. The outcome of this move remains to be seen, but its impact on the 2012 election and the future of Perry's political career will undoubtedly be a subject of ongoing analysis.