Predicting the 2024 US Presidential Election Based on Lichtman’s Model
Introduction
The 2024 US Presidential Election is a critical juncture in American politics. Many factors will determine the outcome, but an in-depth examination of Professor Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys can provide valuable insights. Lichtman’s model has a remarkable track record, having accurately predicted every US presidential election since Ronald Reagan. In this article, we will explore how these keys apply to the current political landscape and assess their impact on Joe Biden’s 2024 re-election bid.
The 13 Keys and Their Application to 2024
1. Party Mandate
In the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats lost a few seats in the House but gained a Senate seat. Although they still have fewer seats than after the 2018 midterms, this factor currently makes the key FALSE.
2. No Primary Contest
Biden faced no significant primary challenge, with Dean Phillips garnering only a few delegates. Should this be maintained, the key will remain TRUE.
3. Incumbent Seeking Reelection
Biden, the incumbent, is the Democratic nominee. If he remains the candidate, this key remains TRUE.
4. No Third Party
RFC Jr. is the primary third party candidate, but despite media attention, his polls are consistently below 5%. For now, this key remains TRUE.
5. Short Term Economy
The US economy has not experienced a recession, and thus this key remains TRUE.
6. Long Term Economy
Despite inflation concerns, the economy has maintained positive growth, and this key remains TRUE.
7. Major Policy Change
Biden has implemented several significant policies, making this key TRUE.
8. No Social Unrest
The country has not seen long-lasting social unrest, and this key remains TRUE.
9. No Scandal
No credible bipartisan scandal has emerged, and this key remains TRUE.
10. No Foreign Policy/Military Failure
The Ukraine conflict is creating instability, potentially turning this key against Biden, making it currently QUESTIONABLE.
11. Foreign Policy Success
Biden’s actions in relation to NATO and Ukraine show mixed results, leaning QUESTIONABLE.
12. Charismatic Incumbent
Biden is not considered charismatic, making this key FALSE.
13. Uncharismatic Challenger
Biden’s challenger is unlikely to be considered charismatic, making this key TRUE.
The Current State and Future Predictions
Currently, the keys stand at 9 for Biden and 4 against him, placing him two keys away from the lethal six-key deficit. Given the current trajectory, it appears unlikely that the keys will shift significantly in the near future. Any substantial disasters or shifts in popular sentiment would be needed for the keys to change.
Conclusion
Based on Lichtman’s 13 Keys model, the 2024 US Presidential Election leans towards a Biden victory. However, the situation remains fluid, particularly with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Biden’s foreign policy performance. Nevertheless, as long as Biden remains the Democratic nominee, Democrats seem well-positioned for re-election.
Further Resources
For more detailed information and ongoing updates, visit Professor Lichtman’s YouTube channel or the online interactive site.