Predicting Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker's Box Office Performance
As the final chapter in the Skywalker saga, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is poised to bring excitement and potential profits to the box office. But how much will it realistically make? Given the history of the Star Wars prequels and sequels, we can make some educated guesses about its domestic and worldwide box office earnings.
Domestic Earnings
The domestic box office is likely to be a strong indicator of The Rise of Skywalker's success. Based on the performance of previous Star Wars films, Rise of Skywalker should make a significant impact. The A New Hope series is a good reference point, with Return of the Jedi having made 82% of A New Hope's domestic earnings, and 20.6% more than The Empire Strikes Back. Using these patterns, if Rise of Skywalker makes 20.6% more than The Last Jedi, it would surpass the 747 million mark; if it makes 82% of Force Awakens's domestic earnings, it would be around 768 million. These figures, when adjusted for inflation and current trends, provide a reasonable range for its domestic success.
Worldwide Earnings
Worldwide, The Rise of Skywalker is expected to perform similarly, though with a broader range. The A New Hope series offers insight here as well. The Force Awakens made 2.06 billion dollars, while Last Jedi only managed 1.33 billion. Rise of Skywalker is likely to fall between these numbers. To pass Age of Ultron and make it into the all-time top ten, it would need to exceed 1.4 billion, which seems quite plausible given its marketing and fanbase. However, to surpass Infinity War and capture the fifth spot, it would need to break the 2 billion mark, a more challenging goal due to the significant gap between Infinity War and Jurassic World.
Projection Based on Audience Reception
The audience reception of the last two films, The Last Jedi and Solo, has been lukewarm, which may influence Rise of Skywalker's performance. Considering the reception, Rise of Skywalker might struggle to surpass Endgame's 858 million, but the almost completion of the Skywalker saga could also give it a push like The Avengers provided 623 million. Therefore, a tight range of 625 to 850 million dollars is quite plausible.
In conclusion, while the exact numbers are still uncertain, the patterns established by previous Star Wars films suggest that The Rise of Skywalker will likely perform well, both domestically and worldwide. With audiences heavily invested in the story and legacy of the Skywalkers, the film is set to deliver a significant financial success, contributing to the rich tapestry of the Star Wars universe.