Post-Lockdown: Analyzing the Impact of Reopening on Community Mobility
The world is slowly returning to a semblance of normalcy as countries lift lockdowns and restrictions aimed at controlling the spread of the pandemic. This article delves into the impact of multiple lockdowns on community mobility, focusing on how people's daily lives are changing as new guidelines come into force. Using data from India, we will explore how movement patterns have evolved as more phases of lockdowns were implemented, leading to an eventual 'unlock'.
General Influence of Lockdowns on Movement
In India, the lockdowns from March to May were implemented in four phases, each accompanied by measures to prevent congregation and maintain social distancing. By plotting the weekly averaged percentage change in the number of visitors to various locations, we can observe a clear trend. As community restrictions have been gradually eased, people have started to venture out, as seen in the decreasing percentage of people staying at their residences for extended periods.
Impact on Retail Outlets and Recreation Facilities
Retail and recreational outlets have experienced a steady increase in foot traffic as lockdown measures have been lifted. This trend is more pronounced in Delhi post the first 'Unlock' phase compared to Maharashtra. While Delhi saw a rise in confirmed cases, which might have influenced this increase, Maharashtra continued to see a rise in cases as well, highlighting a complex set of factors at play.
Frequency of Visits to Groceries and Pharmacies
When comparing Maharashtra and Delhi, the largest increase in mobility during lockdowns was observed in groceries and pharmacies. Both states saw an increase, but the percentage increase in Maharashtra was slightly higher. This trend can be attributed to the essential nature of these services, driving increased reliance during the period of restricted movement.
People's Visits to Parks
There was a significant decline in visits to parks due to movement restrictions. This decline was more pronounced in Delhi, especially after the second week of April when the number of daily cases increased. However, as restrictions were eased and more measures were implemented, the number of park visitors in Delhi gradually increased. In Maharashtra, there was no significant change, likely due to continued partial lockdown measures.
Train Stations and Commute Patterns
Train stations experienced a surge in visitors shortly after the first lockdown, as people tried to return to their hometowns. However, as time passed and restrictions were reduced, the number of visitors at train stations increased gradually. On 1st May, special 'Shramik Trains' were introduced to help migrant workers, contributing to the increase in mobility in May. There was no noticeable difference in trends between the two states.
Workplace Visits and Remote Working
During the early phases of lockdown (~45 days), there was a significant decline in the number of people visiting workplaces as private and government establishments encouraged remote work. However, as travel restrictions were lifted in the third phase, the number of visitors to workplaces increased. This reflects a graded return to work to reduce congregation in office spaces.
Final Thoughts
From the analysis of community mobility data, it is clear that the easing of restrictions in successive phases has had a positive influence on people's ability to venture out. The greatest decline in visitors was observed at parks and recreational locations, while visits to groceries and pharmacies saw the highest rise. People's reliance on staying indoors was evident during the early lockdown phases, with gradual decreases as restrictions were lifted in later phases.
The impact of rising cases in Maharashtra and continued partial lockdowns has reduced mobility, contrasting with the recent fall in cases and increase in mobility in Delhi. This demonstrates the delicate balance between economic benefits and public health considerations as countries navigate the post-lockdown period.
The rising cases certainly influence the imposition or removal of lockdowns, highlighting the complex decisions policymakers must make in managing the pandemic.