How to Find True Odds in Football Betting
The world of football betting can be complex, especially when it comes to finding true odds. Understanding the basics of odds and how bookmakers calculate them is essential for making informed decisions. In this guide, we will walk you through a step-by-step process to find true odds in football betting.
1. Understand the Basics of Odds
In football betting, odds are used to indicate the likelihood of a particular outcome and the potential payout for a winning bet. Let's explore the different types of odds and how they work.
Decimal Odds
Decimal odds provide a straightforward method of calculating the total payout for a winning bet. For example, odds of 2.00 mean that for every unit bet, you will receive 2 units in total (1 unit for the stake and 1 unit in profit). This type of odds is used primarily in European betting.
Fractional Odds
Fractional odds are typically used in the UK and Ireland. They represent the potential profit relative to the stake. For example, odds of 5/1 mean that for every 1 unit bet, you will win 5 units in profit. These odds are often written as 5-1.
American Odds
American odds can be either positive or negative. Positive odds (e.g., 200) indicate the profit you would make on a 100 unit bet. Negative odds (e.g., -150) indicate the amount you need to bet to win 100 units.
2. Calculate Implied Probability
Implied probability is a way to convert odds into a percentage that represents the bookmaker's estimate of the likelihood of a particular outcome. This is useful because it allows you to compare bookmaker odds with your own assessment of the event.
Decimal Odds to Implied Probability
Calculate the implied probability using the formula:
Implied Probability 1 / Decimal Odds
Fractional Odds to Implied Probability
The formula for fractional odds is:
Implied Probability Denominator / (Numerator - Denominator)
American Odds to Implied Probability
The formula varies depending on the sign of the odds:
For positive odds: Implied Probability 100 / (Odds 100)
For negative odds: Implied Probability (Odds / (Odds - 100)) * 100
3. Account for the Bookmakers Margin
Bookmakers include a margin (or overround) in their odds to ensure they make a profit. To calculate the true odds, you need to adjust for this margin.
To find the total implied probability:
Convert the odds of all outcomes (win, lose, draw, etc.) to implied probabilities. Add these probabilities together. Subtract 1 from the total to find the margin. Divide the implied probability of each outcome by (1 - Margin) to get the true odds.4. Example Calculation
Consider a match with the following decimal odds:
Team A: 2.00 Team B: 3.50 Draw: 3.00First, calculate the implied probabilities:
Team A: 1 / 2.00 0.50 or 50% Team B: 1 / 3.50 ≈ 0.286 or 28.6% Draw: 1 / 3.00 ≈ 0.333 or 33.3%Total Implied Probability: 0.50 0.286 0.333 1.119 or 111.9%
Margin: 1.119 - 1 0.119 or 11.9%
True Odds:
Team A: 0.50 / 0.881 ≈ 0.567 or 56.7% Team B: 0.286 / 0.881 ≈ 0.325 or 32.5% Draw: 0.333 / 0.881 ≈ 0.378 or 37.8%5. Use Statistical Analysis
Beyond just odds, it's important to analyze other factors to make a more informed bet. Key factors to consider include:
Team performance Player statistics and injuries Historical matchups Home advantage Tactical considerations6. Compare Odds Across Bookmakers
It's not uncommon for different bookmakers to offer varying odds for the same event. This is due to their unique calculations and margins. By comparing the odds across multiple platforms, you can find the best available odds for your bet.
By following these steps, you can better understand the true odds of a football match and make more informed betting decisions. Remember, successful betting requires patience, discipline, and a deep understanding of the game.