Why Will Donald Trump Win the Election in 2024? Exploring the Global and American Support for Mr. Donald Trump
Introduction
This commentary aims to analyze the reasons behind the victory of Donald Trump in the 2024 election, touching on the Electoral College results and the broader appeal of Mr. Trump both domestically and internationally. Despite the close scrutiny and criticism, the 2024 election saw a strong win for Trump in the Electoral College, highlighting a divide in political opinions and support.
The Electoral Win and Popular Vote Discrepancy
While Donald Trump secured a strong victory in the Electoral College, the popular vote results were notably different. Trump won more electoral votes but lost the popular vote margin. This means that significantly more people voted against him than for him, which underscores that the win did not come with a clear mandate but rather reflects a fragmented voter base.
Critical Analysis of Both Sides
Incumbents and the Recovery: The incumbent democrats faced criticism for the economic recovery post-COVID, particularly inflation. Though some argue that Biden and Harris received a fair share of blame, the 20% increase in grocery prices in the US compared to the EU’s 30% suggests that economic policies might have had mixed results.
Blame Game in the Wake of Inflation: Attributing inflation entirely to Biden and Harris is overly simplistic. Trump did not present a viable alternative solution to address inflation. His proposal to halve energy prices is unrealistic, as energy costs are deeply integrated into the global supply chain.
Biden and Harris’ Campaign Promises: While Harris promised actions against price gouging, her lack of specific plans raised doubts. Her promises of government price controls, reminiscent of Nixon’s era, were a risky move with historical precedents suggesting negative impacts.
The Role of Identity and Messaging
A Targeted Narrative: The Democratic Party’s focus on specific groups like families, women, and children resonated with certain factions but missed the mark with broader demographics. The omission of white males and those without college degrees was particularly noteworthy and indicates a need for a more inclusive and comprehensive strategy.
Debunking Theories and Critiques: The renewed attacks on Trump are seen as misplaced, focusing more on rhetorical responses rather than substantive accomplishments. The critique suggests that the Democratic Party failed to present a compelling counter-narrative, allowing Trump to capitalize on his base's outrage and dissatisfaction.
Outrage and_likelihood_of_Reelection
Trump's Strategy: In 2024, Trump adopted a similar strategy to 2016, playing the outrage card effectively. His proposals, ranging from gender definitions to immediate deportations, reflect a divide in societal views and attract the vocal segments of his supporters.
Healthcare and Border Policies: While Trump promised significant healthcare reforms and border wall construction, his administration struggled to follow through on these commitments. The failure to deliver on promised policies adds to the narrative of inaction and unfulfilling rhetoric.
Conclusion
The 2024 election has brought to fore the complexities of modern politics, blending traditional electoral strategies with contemporary messaging. While Democrats have faced significant scrutiny, the persistent support for Trump underscores the enduring political divide and the profound impact of identity-based messaging.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, the Democratic Party faces a critical challenge in addressing the multifaceted issues that motivated Trump's victory. The path forward requires a more robust strategy to engage with voters on a broader and more inclusive scale.