Are NFL Fans More Likely to be Trump Supporters?

Are NFL Fans More Likely to be Trump Supporters?

It has often been discussed whether NFL fans lean towards political movements, and particularly towards supporting the former President Donald Trump. Just how representative is their political affiliation in the context of broader society? Here is a recent study on this topic.

One efficient approach to answer this question is by utilizing social network analysis tools like a Facebook ad. By creating a targeted ad to a specific demographic, we can gather insights into the intersection of sports fandom and political leanings. Here are the steps to understand the relationship between NFL fans and Donald Trump supporters:

Analyzing Facebook User Data

Let us start by creating a Facebook ad targeting a potential US audience of 213 million people. Narrowing this down, we focus on people who like a specific US football team, which brings the audience to 40 million. Further, we restrict the audience to those interested in Donald Trump. This results in an estimated 15 million users, representing those who follow both football and have an interest in the Donald Trump, with a final tally of approximately 57 million users.

From this, we can infer that only 27% of US Facebook users might exhibit Trump interest, indicative of the significant overlap between football fans and those with political leanings towards Trump.

The NFL and Political Leanings

While the relationship between the NFL and Republicans hasn’t undergone extensive study, an analysis of the conservative-NFL relationship does provide some clarity. Yes, NFL fans are indeed more likely to be Trump supporters. Despite Donald Trump's success in certain demographics, his base of support wasn't significantly different from his recent Republican predecessors, making NFL fans a reasonable demographic to scrutinize politically.

The NFL's Political Landscape

According to The NFL's Most Republican and Democratic Fan Bases, most NFL teams—playing in regions leaning Democrat—still show strong Republican leanings among fans. Specifically, out of 32 teams, 23 are more Republican than expected based on location, with only 6 being more Democratic. This suggests an overwhelmingly conservative fan base across the league, even in traditionally conservative areas like Dallas and Tampa.

A 2014 Reuters piece titled NFL: Last sports bastion of white male conservatives highlighted the demographic makeup of NFL fans: 83% identified as white, 64% male, 51% aged 45 and over, with only 32% making less than $60,000 annually. Notably, 21% more registered Republicans were NFL fans than registered Democrats, and they were 59% more likely to have played golf in the past year.

These data paint a picture of a fanbase that is largely white, male, older, and affluent—identifiers strongly correlated with conservative political views, which parallels the voter demographic that supported Trump.

Conclusion

While there's no definitive proof that NFL fans are solely Trump supporters, this data shows a clear trend that fans of the NFL are more frequently found in a segment of the population that lean towards conservative political leanings, which includes a higher likelihood of supporting Trump and making demographic comparisons.

The NFL, noteworthy for its diverse fan base, remains a significant conservative political bastion. While other sports like NASCAR, golf, and conservative college football offer additional insights, they collectively indicate a political leaning among fans even in the most politically charged regions. As such, NFL fans represent a demographic that is significantly more aligned with the values and policies associated with former President Donald Trump.