Alternative Path: A Remain Majority and Its Potential Outcomes
Imagine a scenario where the outcome of the Brexit referendum had been different. If the Remain MPs had managed to overturn the Leave result, how might Britain have evolved differently? The answer to this question often hinges on the closeness of the initial referendum result.
Outcome Based on the Closeness of the Result
Had the referendum result been a clear majority favoring Remain, the trajectory of the UK might have resembled that of other nations that accepted the democratic outcome, moved on, and focused on other pressing issues. Those advocating for Leave would likely have been ignored or overshadowed, leading to a swift and smooth transition.
However, if the result had been closer but the Leave side prevailed, the debate and contention surrounding Brexit might have persisted for years. The focus of political and societal discourse would have remained on the EU membership issue, possibly leading to ongoing arguments and debates.
Parliament's Response to Post-Brexit Logjams
Had the result been overturned in favor of Remain, one of the primary impacts would have been the unblocking of parliamentary debates and decisions that were previously held hostage by Brexit. A stronger continental response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic would have been more efficient and effective, reflecting a reinforced EU stance.
The EU referendum question would have remained pertinent but would have largely stayed on the backburner until significant constitutional changes or further European integration occurred. In essence, it might have taken another generation before such a discussion became viable again.
Potential Future Trajectories for Rejoining the EU
Fast forward to the present, where the UK has already left the EU and Brexit is irreversible. However, the idea of rejoining the EU is not far-fetched in the mind of many. The most likely future trajectory could involve a phased approach, starting with a new trade deal that closely resembles EU Single Market and Customs Union membership.
Eventually, a government would be elected with a promise to negotiate the terms of rejoining, likely a Conservative government composed of new members who did not participate in the previous seven years of Brexit negotiations.
Long, intricate negotiations would follow, involving complex issues such as the Schengen Agreement and possible member state vetoes, including the Parthenon Marbles case. The negotiated terms would then be put to a referendum to ensure clarity and transparency for the voters, learning from the previous vague “Leave” campaign.
Timescale and Uncertainties
The process of rejoining might take another 15-20 years, a period during which the current political landscape would significantly change. Those who would drive this decision are likely still in their university years.
While the damage caused by Brexit cannot be fully repaired, such a future scenario would certainly offer a more unified and integrated approach to governance and economy, constituting a step in the right direction.
In conclusion, while the current outcome of Brexit is set in stone, understanding alternative scenarios provides valuable insights into potential future trajectories and the complexities involved in European integration.